Clinical calculator for the prognosis of rapid progression of chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Aim. To develop an applied clinical calculator for the prognosis of rapid progression of CKD in patients with type 2 diabetes, which allows to identify a group of patients at risk of a high rate of decrease in GFR of diabetes in outpatient admission, to assess its informativeness, resolution and diagnostic significance.
Material and methods. A single-stage cross-observational study of clinical status indicators was performed in a population sample of patients with type 2 diabetes. Primary medical data were collected using the AWPE 2.0 program; 150 protocols of outpatient consultations, including 69 clinical indicators, were selected according to the compliance criteria. Based on the results of a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between the indicators of clinical status and the stages of development of CKD in type 2 diabetes, the most significant factors of progression of diabetic kidney damage are identified; the original diagnostic parameter "GFR reduction Index" is proposed and clinically justified, which allows to give an objective quantitative characteristic of the dynamics of the pathological process; the measure of the influence of diagnostically significant predictors on the rate of GFR reduction is determined by regression analysis; a logistic model is constructed, on the basis of which a prognostic calculator for rapid progression of CKD is developed.
Results. Quantitative assessment of the contribution of individual clinical indicators to the rate of progression of CKD allowed us to identify the following significant factors: duration of diabetes and insulin therapy, acute myocardial infarction in history, age, BMI, concomitant retinopathy, pulsation on the popliteal artery, risk group IV hypertension, treatment with sulfonylureas (without differentiated assessment by pharmacological groups), calcium antagonists; when evaluating the informativeness and predictive ability of the calculator, the area under the AUC ROC curve was 0,90 (0,82; 0,98), p<0,001, which characterizes the quality of the diagnostic technique as very high.
Conclusion. The original diagnostic parameter "Glomerular filtration Rate reduction Index" allows us to get a more detailed and accurate idea of the patterns of progression of CKD in DM, the applied clinical calculator of rapid progression of CKD allows us to identify a group of patients at risk of a high rate of GFR reduction, with a high level of diagnostic significance in outpatient settings.

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